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Demographic Predictions for Nordic Countries

This article will detail current demographics and future predictions for Nordic countries. These countries have traditionally been homogenous societies, but recent decades have seen a historic influx of foreign-background peoples.

These countries began from varying starting points. Sweden began taking in refugees in the 1940's, while Finland absorbed an influx of refugees beginning in the 1990's.

Classification

According to the main classification principles of the Nordic statistical centers, persons are of foreign background if they are born abroad or both of their parents are born abroad. The term native population is used for people originating entirely from the host country's national origin.

In biological terms, the native population’s share reflects the genetic portion of the historic ethnic population. However, the definition used in these studies requires one parent of Nordic national origin. It assumes that the children of a foreign-born person who marries a native will be counted as native people.

Predictions

This graph shows current and future predictions of demographics for four Nordic countries. It uses net immigration trends and birth rates for the 2012-2014 years as its basis. It should be noted that foreign nationals migrating into Europe has seen a dramatic increase since 2015. This has not been taken into account for this research.

The research concludes that Native Swedes will become a minority in Sweden by 2065.

Western Population

The next graph gives a prediction for the percentage of the total population that originates from a 'Western' origin. This includes any person from a Western European cultural-ethnic background. For example, if a native Swedish person moves into Norway, this person would be counted as a 'Western' person, but not counted as a native Norwegian.

According to Statistics Norway and Denmark classifications, Western countries include countries belonging to the European Union, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and some midget countries.

The percentage of net persons who come from a Western country varies. In Sweden, 25% of immigrants come from a Western background, Norway: 72%, Denmark 61%, and Finland: 37%.

Historically, virtually all people of a Western origin who immigrated to a Nordic country stayed there, and assimilated into the native population via marriage. Unions between natives and non-Westerners have been, and continue to be, rarer for ethnic and cultural reasons.

Muslim Populations

In Sweden, the Muslim population grows annually at 4.1% due to fertility being above the replacement level and the yearly net intake of 34,000 new Muslim immigrants. At the current rate of demographic change, Sweden will be over 25% Muslim peoples and 50% native Swedes by 2065.

The Muslim population is predicted to be a lower percentage of the total population in other Nordic countries due to the percent of immigrants coming from a Western origin.

Conclusion

Nordic governments have restricted immigration, especially after the migrant crisis in 2015. However, from the perspective of demography, these restrictions are not major. They will somewhat slow down the pace of the population changes but not stop them. Among all Western politicians, there has been no public discussion about the demographic developments and how immigration policy could affect them. The subject of demographic change is still sensitive in our current culture.

As it has been stated before on this website, the information presented here is meant to be neutral, and is simply a record of current demographics. The predictions made in this article could, of course, change as a result of cultural changes or other world events.

Originally published April 20, 2021

Sources:
   Population projections for Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland by Kyösti Tarvainen - Archive
    Statistisk Sentralbyrå

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